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"Mismatch in Mexico" - The Raiders have faced truly terrible teams at passing to their RBs. To be precise, they have played the 5th easiest schedule of RB-pass offenses, and by far the #1 easiest since week 4 (see below). In fact, here are how their opponents have ranked since week 4 in efficiency of RB passes: 12, 20, 24, 28, 29, 30 (see lower right). Yet despite this easy schedule, the Raiders defense ranks 5th worst against RB-passes.
On the other hand, the Patriots' offense has faced the #1 most difficult schedule of RB-pass defenses this year (see upper right). And despite that, the Patriots RB-pass offense ranks 3rd best in the NFL.
This is a "shock to the system" matchup that we look for. It's not just a bad RB-pass defense against a great RB-pass offense. The "shock" is the extremely easy schedule for the Raiders and the extremely difficult schedule for the Patriots. Look for Rex Burkhead, targeted on 33% of his routes and playing more than ever (51% of offensive snaps last week), to be a big beneficiary in this colossal mismatch in Mexico.
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